3044 健鼎
- 5月開始注意6月MSCI指數納入A股，權重調整對台股的影響
- 5月開始注意FOMC 6月及7月的利率政策走向
- 當全球央行負利率遇到歐洲銀行COCO BOND
- 日本MF PF用盡之時,而負債/GDP>200% ,全力做空
- 台股520魔咒。．。
- 全球股市8-10年一循環的到來
- 陸股也開始做CDO 未來雷曼事件,也會再捲土重來
| 指數 | 01月 | 2月 | 3月 | 4月 | 5月 | 6月 | 7月 | 8月 | 9月 | 10月 | 11月 | 12月 |
| 漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
|
| #BSESN印度BSE 30指數:漲跌幅(%) | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 40.0% | 80.0% |
| #BTKAMEX生物科技指數:漲跌幅(%) | 70.0% | 60.0% | 80.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 80.0% |
| #BVSP巴西IBOVESPA指數:漲跌幅(%) | 40.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% | 30.0% | 40.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% | 80.0% | 50.0% | 70.0% |
| #DJI道瓊指數:漲跌幅(%) | 40.0% | 70.0% | 80.0% | 100.0% | 50.0% | 40.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| #GDAXI德國DAX指數:漲跌幅(%) | 60.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | 70.0% | 70.0% | 70.0% | 80.0% |
| #GSPCS&P 500指數:漲跌幅(%) | 50.0% | 70.0% | 70.0% | 90.0% | 60.0% | 40.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% |
| #JALSH南非ALSH指數:漲跌幅(%) | 50.0% | 70.0% | 70.0% | 80.0% | 50.0% | 30.0% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% | 90.0% | 70.0% | 70.0% |
| #JKSE印尼雅加達綜合指數:漲跌幅(%) | 60.0% | 80.0% | 90.0% | 80.0% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 70.0% | 40.0% | 70.0% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| #KS11韓國KOSPI綜合指數:漲跌幅(%) | 40.0% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 70.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | 80.0% | 40.0% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| #MXLAMSCI新興拉丁:漲跌幅(%) | 40.0% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 70.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 60.0% | 30.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% | 20.0% | 70.0% |
| #MXMSMSCI新興亞洲指數:漲跌幅(%) | 40.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 90.0% | 30.0% | 50.0% | 70.0% | 20.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 70.0% |
| #N225日本日經225指數:漲跌幅(%) | 50.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 30.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 80.0% |
| #NBINASDAQ生物科技指數:漲跌幅(%) | 80.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% |
| #PSI菲律賓PSE指數:漲跌幅(%) | 60.0% | 70.0% | 80.0% | 80.0% | 40.0% | 60.0% | 80.0% | 40.0% | 60.0% | 80.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| #RTS俄羅斯RTS指數:漲跌幅(%) | 50.0% | 70.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | 30.0% | 50.0% | 70.0% | 30.0% | 50.0% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 70.0% |
| #SET泰國SET指數:漲跌幅(%) | 40.0% | 80.0% | 50.0% | 90.0% | 40.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% |
| #SOXX費城半導體指數:漲跌幅(%) | 40.0% | 80.0% | 50.0% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% |
| #SSEC上海綜合:漲跌幅(%) | 50.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 40.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | 70.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| #STI新加坡海峽時報指數:漲跌幅(%) | 50.0% | 70.0% | 80.0% | 90.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 70.0% | 10.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | 70.0% |
| #TWII台灣加權股價指數:漲跌幅(%) | 40.0% | 80.0% | 70.0% | 70.0% | 40.0% | 20.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 70.0% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 90.0% |
| TWOTC.TW台灣OTC指數:漲跌幅(%) | 30.0% | 80.0% | 80.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | 20.0% | 40.0% | 20.0% | 70.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | 90.0% |
|
1月休息；2-3月做多；5窮6絕7上8下(底部佈局)；9月反彈10-11月盤整；12月年底做帳 10-11月是多空最不明確的時間；但回歸指標，還是看週KD及季均線 |
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| 指數 | 01月 | 2月 | 3月 | 4月 | 5月 | 6月 | 7月 | 8月 | 9月 | 10月 | 11月 | 12月 |
| 漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
|
| #TWII台灣加權股價指數:漲跌幅(%) | 40.0% | 80.0% | 70.0% | 70.0% | 40.0% | 20.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 70.0% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 90.0% |
| TWOTC.TW台灣OTC指數:漲跌幅(%) | 30.0% | 80.0% | 80.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | 20.0% | 40.0% | 20.0% | 70.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | 90.0% |
| 家數\月份 | 01月 | 2月 | 3月 | 4月 | 5月 | 6月 | 7月 | 8月 | 9月 | 10月 | 11月 | 12月 |
| 上漲(Pr70%)家數 | 161 | 650 | 618 | 330 | 174 | 82 | 186 | 48 | 409 | 160 | 146 | 864 |
| 下跌(Pr70%)家數 | 440 | 82 | 139 | 274 | 335 | 766 | 487 | 857 | 155 | 433 | 461 | 73 |
| 上漲機率家數比 | 27% | 89% | 82% | 55% | 34% | 10% | 28% | 5% | 73% | 27% | 24% | 92% |
| 下跌機率家數比 | 73% | 11% | 18% | 45% | 66% | 90% | 72% | 95% | 27% | 73% | 76% | 8% |
| 家數\月份 | 01月 | 2月 | 3月 | 4月 | 5月 | 6月 | 7月 | 8月 | 9月 | 10月 | 11月 | 12月 |
| 上漲(>0%)家數 | 542 | 1,415 | 1,351 | 1,079 | 913 | 338 | 746 | 214 | 912 | 580 | 547 | 1,428 |
| 下跌(<0%)家數 | 1,056 | 145 | 209 | 488 | 656 | 1,235 | 831 | 1,367 | 670 | 1,004 | 1,043 | 168 |
| 正報酬家數比 | 34% | 91% | 87% | 69% | 58% | 21% | 47% | 14% | 58% | 37% | 34% | 89% |
| 負報酬家數比 | 66% | 9% | 13% | 31% | 42% | 79% | 53% | 86% | 42% | 63% | 66% | 11% |
| 家數\月份 | 01月 | 2月 | 3月 | 4月 | 5月 | 6月 | 7月 | 8月 | 9月 | 10月 | 11月 | 12月 |
| 上漲家數 | 0 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 24 |
| 下跌家數 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
漲跌 機率值 |
|
| TWA00加權指數:漲幅(%) | 40.0% | 80.0% | 70.0% | 70.0% | 40.0% | 20.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 70.0% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 90.0% |
| TWC00OTC指數:漲幅(%) | 30.0% | 80.0% | 80.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | 20.0% | 40.0% | 20.0% | 70.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | 90.0% |
| TWB11水泥類:漲幅(%) | 20.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | 70.0% | 40.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% |
| TWB12食品類:漲幅(%) | 20.0% | 80.0% | 70.0% | 80.0% | 50.0% | 70.0% | 90.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | 80.0% |
| TWB13塑膠類:漲幅(%) | 50.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% | 70.0% | 30.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 40.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% | 40.0% | 90.0% |
| TWB14紡織纖維:漲幅(%) | 40.0% | 70.0% | 70.0% | 70.0% | 40.0% | 80.0% | 70.0% | 30.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | 70.0% |
| TWB15電機類:漲幅(%) | 30.0% | 80.0% | 70.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% | 20.0% | 50.0% | 10.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% | 70.0% |
| TWB16電器電纜:漲幅(%) | 20.0% | 80.0% | 60.0% | 80.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 60.0% | 20.0% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 30.0% | 90.0% |
| TWB17化學生技醫療:漲幅(%) | 40.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 80.0% | 20.0% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% |
| TWB18玻璃陶瓷:漲幅(%) | 20.0% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 60.0% | 30.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 90.0% |
| TWB19造紙類:漲幅(%) | 20.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% | 30.0% | 20.0% | 60.0% | 20.0% | 70.0% | 50.0% | 40.0% | 80.0% |
| TWB20鋼鐵類:漲幅(%) | 50.0% | 40.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% | 20.0% | 40.0% | 90.0% |
| TWB21橡膠類:漲幅(%) | 40.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 80.0% | 50.0% | 70.0% | 70.0% | 40.0% | 70.0% |
| TWB22汽車類:漲幅(%) | 30.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% | 30.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| TWB23電子類:漲幅(%) | 50.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% | 20.0% | 30.0% | 40.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | 90.0% |
| TWB25營建類:漲幅(%) | 30.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% | 40.0% | 60.0% | 30.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| TWB26運輸類:漲幅(%) | 30.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | 40.0% | 60.0% | 20.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% | 90.0% |
| TWB27觀光類:漲幅(%) | 30.0% | 60.0% | 40.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 80.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | 90.0% |
| TWB28金融保險:漲幅(%) | 40.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | 30.0% | 50.0% | 70.0% | 10.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 40.0% | 70.0% |
| TWB29百貨類:漲幅(%) | 30.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | 90.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% | 20.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 80.0% |
| TWB30化學工業:漲幅(%) | 33.3% | 50.0% | 62.5% | 75.0% | 37.5% | 12.5% | 62.5% | 22.2% | 66.7% | 55.6% | 44.4% | 88.9% |
| TWB31生技醫療:漲幅(%) | 11.1% | 75.0% | 62.5% | 50.0% | 37.5% | 25.0% | 62.5% | 22.2% | 77.8% | 55.6% | 44.4% | 66.7% |
| TWB32油電燃氣:漲幅(%) | 0.0% | 75.0% | 50.0% | 62.5% | 25.0% | 37.5% | 50.0% | 22.2% | 66.7% | 66.7% | 44.4% | 66.7% |
| TWB33半導體:漲幅(%) | 44.4% | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.5% | 50.0% | 12.5% | 25.0% | 33.3% | 77.8% | 44.4% | 55.6% | 88.9% |
| TWB34電腦及週邊設備:漲幅(%) | 44.4% | 75.0% | 50.0% | 75.0% | 50.0% | 12.5% | 62.5% | 44.4% | 66.7% | 44.4% | 44.4% | 66.7% |
| TWB35光電:漲幅(%) | 33.3% | 75.0% | 50.0% | 62.5% | 75.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 44.4% | 44.4% | 22.2% | 44.4% | 77.8% |
| TWB36通信網路業:漲幅(%) | 22.2% | 75.0% | 62.5% | 75.0% | 37.5% | 25.0% | 12.5% | 44.4% | 55.6% | 55.6% | 33.3% | 100.0% |
| TWB37電子零組件:漲幅(%) | 33.3% | 75.0% | 75.0% | 62.5% | 37.5% | 25.0% | 50.0% | 44.4% | 66.7% | 33.3% | 55.6% | 66.7% |
| TWB38電子通路:漲幅(%) | 55.6% | 75.0% | 37.5% | 50.0% | 37.5% | 25.0% | 50.0% | 44.4% | 55.6% | 44.4% | 33.3% | 77.8% |
| TWB39資訊服務:漲幅(%) | 22.2% | 50.0% | 75.0% | 37.5% | 62.5% | 37.5% | 37.5% | 33.3% | 66.7% | 44.4% | 33.3% | 88.9% |
| TWB40其他電子:漲幅(%) | 44.4% | 62.5% | 75.0% | 75.0% | 50.0% | 25.0% | 50.0% | 66.7% | 55.6% | 22.2% | 44.4% | 55.6% |
| TWB99其他類:漲幅(%) | 30.0% | 80.0% | 80.0% | 90.0% | 50.0% | 40.0% | 70.0% | 10.0% | 70.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 70.0% |
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